Since last night, anyway. The people who make shipping work are frantically trying to keep up. One of the biggest customs brokers posts updates twice a day on weekdays. Last update 4 PM Friday, so they haven't caught the biggest reversal. If tariff rates change while in transit, the bond paid before the item was shipped may now be insufficient. So the container goes into storage (where?) until Customs and Border Protection gets paid. Some recipients don't have the cash to pay. Low-end resellers who order on Alibaba and sell on Amazon, for example.

Port operators hate this. Unwanted containers clog up the portside sorting and storage systems. Eventually the containers are either sent back or auctioned off by CBP, like this stuff.[1]

Some shippers outside the US have stopped shipping to the US until this settles. This includes all the major laptop makers - Lenovo, Acer, Dell, etc.[2] Nobody wants to be caught with a container in transit, a big customs bill due on receipt, and storage charges. That will recover once the rates are stable for a few weeks. Probably.

Customs and Border Protection is trying to keep up. Sometimes you have to pay more because Trump raised tariffs. Sometimes you can get a credit back because Trump dropped tariffs. Those are all exception transactions, with extra paperwork and delays.

Where's the Flexport guy from YC? He should be able to explain all this.

Consumer version: expect to see some empty shelves, rejected orders, and higher prices for the next few weeks.

[1] https://bid.cwsmarketing.com/auctions/catalog/id/167

[2] https://www.techspot.com/news/107504-trump-tariffs-force-maj...

I’m not seeing anyone discuss this here, so I figured I’d raise an important point: this style of tariffs is crushing for US manufacturing. While a universal tariff with no exceptions incentivizes domestic manufacturing, a selective tariff with specific industry exceptions is absolute poison.

You might think, as the authors of this exemption did, “well then we will exempt computer parts.” Then people will simply import the parts. But if you manufacture those parts in the US, you are suddenly at a massive disadvantage. Your computer parts factory likely runs using a large amount of imported raw materials, imported machines, and imported tooling, and there are no tariff exemptions for those broad categories… so you’re screwed. Oftentimes there is no reasonable domestic substitute. You will go out of business in favor of someone importing the parts, which now happens tariff-free under an exemption. That’s why, generally speaking, tariff exemptions are deadly to domestic manufacturing.

Why is no one highlighting how this is repeating history 8 years ago? I don’t get it, there’s this magical reporting gap where all of this is new strategy but it’s the exact same strategy. Why don’t we acknowledge this instead of searching for some new angle?

Here are a bunch of links from 2018/2019:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/13/apple-dodges-iphone-tariff-a...

https://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/investing/t052-s001-14-s...

https://www.texastribune.org/2019/06/07/trump-tariff-threat-...

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/trumps-tariff-str...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-to-delay-tariff-increases...

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/19/hundreds-of-chines...

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/china-threatens-retalia...

https://www.cfr.org/blog/trumps-tariffs-are-killing-american...

Per Bloomberg, 20% fentanyl tariff on China still applies and these categories may yet receive their own unique tariff, https://archive.is/jKupW

The exemption categories include components and assembled products, https://content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd/USDHSCBP-3db9e5...

  8471       ADP (Automatic Data Processing) Machines: PCs, servers, terminals.
  8473.30    Parts for ADPs: keyboards, peripherals, printers.
  8486       Machines for producing semiconductors & ICs: wafer fab, lithography.
  8517.13    Mobile phones and smartphones.
  8517.62    Radios, router, modems.
  8523.51    Radio/TV broadcasting equipment.
  8524       2-way radios.
  8528.52    Computer monitors and projectors (no TVs).

  8541.10    Diodes, transistors and similar electronic components
  8541.21    LEDs
  8541.29    Photodiodes and non-LED diodes
  8541.30    Transistors
  8541.49.10 Other semiconductors that emit light
  8541.49.70 Optoelectronics: light sensors, solar cells
  8541.49.80 Photoresistors
  8541.49.95 Other semiconductor devices
  8541.51.00 LEDs for displays
  8541.59.00 Other specialized semiconductor devices
  8541.90.00 Semiconductor parts: interconnects, packaging, assembly
  8542       Electronic ICs

Industrial-scale workarounds were developed for previous tariffs, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43652823. Such loopholes will need to be addressed in any new trade agreements.